Sunday, March 6, 2022

Ukraine migraine

There's a part of me that can't help making comparisons from the past with the current crisis in Ukraine. I mean, history can't help but repeat itself, it seems. We just have to be observant enough to see it.

The fact that Ukraine is reportedly providing unexpectedly stiff and unrelenting resistance to the Russian invasion makes me wonder if this is similar to what the American colonists faced against King George III and the world's strongest military at the time as the colonies tried to gain their independence.

Ukrainians, of course, are fighting to keep their independence. Different, but the same.

The comparisons of Russian president Vladimir Putin to Nazi German chancellor Adolf Hitler in the 1930s and '40s is almost too easy. Both leaders relied on obviously contrived and unprovoked excuses to justify their aggressions upon neighboring sovereign states. Both leaders are/were heartless in their world view of humanity.

In truth, most aggressors initiate their invasions with provocations.

Incredibly – and I hadn't really considered this until now – is the persecution of both Jews and people of color by the invader state and, in some cases, by states supposedly providing safe spaces. World history cannot escape its centuries long oppression of Jews, Blacks and immigrants in general. And so it continues.

Refugees still flee from their oppressors with not much more than the clothes on their backs and whatever they can carry in their hands. What has surprised me is the seemingly large number of refugees bringing their pets with them. I didn't expect that.

Sanctions are a tool to use against aggressor nations, and the sanctions imposed on the Russians right now seem to be significant. Financial sanctions that cause discomfort among the populace can ultimately result in revolution. Russia should know this from the revolution it experienced in World War 1 in 1917.

A large number of body bags returning home also could foster a Russian revolution. It depends on how the critical mass of the dead is defined and reached. Vietnam is within our own history – and memory – on this matter.

And speaking of critical mass, the existence of nuclear technology, both in weapons and vulnerable power plants. has a role in this conflict, and maybe for the first time since the Cuban Missile Crisis of October 1962. Even now, it's enough to be unsettling. 

If the nuclear option ever does come into play (and I might sound a whole lot like a duck-and-cover kid from the 1950s – which I am), this conflict will require a deft mixture of diplomacy, brinkmanship, wisdom and luck to keep us from becoming the third cinder from the sun.



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