Picking Astros; pulling for Phillies

 I know. That headline above this blog makes absolutely no sense. Until it does.

It's like I'm trying to have it both ways on the eve of the World Series.

But let me explain.

As noted in an earlier blog, I've been a Phillies fan since at least 1964. I lived (and died) through the team's legendary late-season collapse that year, but I also celebrated World Series championships in 1980 and 2008. I bleed Phillies red (I guess we all do when you think about it. What a fan base).

The fact that the Phillies made it to the World Series, which begins Friday night in Houston, is nothing short of amazing. They are the sixth and final seed from Major League Baseball's new and expanded playoff system, and it's the only reason they're in the playoffs to begin with. They finished the regular season in third place in the NL East Division with a mediocre 87-75 record, qualified for the playoffs on the second to the last day of the year, and then got hot at exactly the right time by knocking off the Cardinals, Braves and Padres in the playoffs.

The Phillies are 9-2 in the postseason, which I suppose you could say improves their record to 96-77.

Meanwhile, the Astros are undefeated in the playoffs and won 106 games in the regular season to become the top seed from the American league.

The Astros have been hot all year long. They're built for the long haul and quite possibly for the postseason. They've been a very good team for at least five years, when they won their first World Series title in 2017 and added three more American League pennants since then. They are currently in the middle of a dynasty.

They have a manager, Dusty Baker, who is beloved and has won more than 2,000 games in a long and glorious career. But he's never managed a World Series winner. This makes him a sentimental favorite for many baseball insiders and fans.

On paper, Houston wins the statistical matchup, especially from their bullpen. Their starter on Friday, Justin Verlander, is favored to win the Cy Young Award. He'll go against Philly's Aaron Nola, who can be great on any given night – or not so great.

In the face of what could be a colossal mismatch – hey, the Astros just swept the Yankees, for crying out loud – the Phillies are just fun to watch. They can get massive home runs from bombers like Bryce Harper, Rhys Hoskins or Kyle Schwarber in one moment, or they can kick the ball around like an American Legion baseball team the next. Which is why they have to hit homers.

Houston is also seeking redemption, of sorts, for its sign-stealing scandal in 2017 when it beat the Los Angeles Dodgers in the World Series. It's a charge they can't quite shake, kind of like Tom Brady and the New England Patriots Deflate-gate and Spygate episodes, which will seemingly follow them for generations. 

Harper's two-run homer in the bottom of the eighth inning in the fifth game of the NLCS might be the most clutch homer I've ever seen from a Phillie, and that includes decades of watching Mike Schmidt hitting dingers. So there.

I think it's imperative that the Phillies get a split in one of their first two games in Houston, then bring the Series back to Philadelphia where they can feed off the fans for three games. If they can't get a split, it could be quick work by the Astros.

So my brain says the Astros win this thing in five. Maybe even four.

But my heart says the Phillies in seven, which means they have to win at least one game in Houston, and more likely, two. They have to stay hot. They have to be lucky. And they have to have heart.

Go Phillies.